James O’Brien, who served as assistant secretary of state in the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden, portrayed the deal as a major win for Azerbaijan and warned of pitfalls in its implementation in an article published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think-tank.
“The Washington ceremony is a material step toward peace … But the underlying cause of the conflict has not been resolved, just postponed, and the event excluded parties who will try to get what they want in the meantime,” he wrote.
Armenia and Azerbaijan initialed a bilateral peace treaty during talks between their leaders hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on August 8. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian also pledged to give the United States exclusive rights to a transit corridor to Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave that would pass through Armenia’s strategic Syunik region. Trump, Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed that these agreements put an end to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
O’Brien, who is now a visiting fellow at the ECFR, questioned their claims. He argued, in particular, that Baku continues to make the signing of the treaty conditional on a change of Armenia’s constitution.
“Any amendment to Armenia’s constitution will not happen before next year’s [parliamentary] election -- now set to be overshadowed by this very issue,” he said.
O’Brien pointed to a “potential backlash in Armenia” against the corridor deal with the U.S. also condemned by the Armenian opposition as a sellout.
U.S. - Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and President Donald Trump arrive for a signing ceremony at the White House, August 8, 2025.
“There will be no substantial peace dividend for Armenia: no open border with Turkey, no extra investments for Armenia’s benefit … only a corridor connecting different parts of Azerbaijan,” he said. “The election campaign will now be dominated by the prospect of a coerced constitutional change. This will be deeply unpopular in Armenia and will hurt Pashinian further.”
Armenian opposition leaders and other government critics say outsourcing control of the transit corridor, named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), to the U.S. and/or companies hired by Washington would undermine Armenian sovereignty over Syunik. Pashinian has repeatedly denied this since August 8. But he still not publicized a U.S.-Armenian memorandum of understanding that may contain crucial details of the transit arrangement which Baku says conforms to its demands for an extraterritorial corridor for Nakhichevan.
“President Ilham Aliyev did not get the complete climb down by Armenia that he wanted, but he won a great deal,” said O’Brien. “Aliyev leaves with an agreement that deepens his relationship with the U.S., securing help for a safe connection with Nakhchivan and a promise of U.S. investment in the corridor.
Armenia - A view of the Armenian-Iranian border from Syunik.
“One foundation of the peace-in-practice proposed by the Biden team was a U.S. pledge to impose sanctions on officials and companies that build, operate or use a corridor without Armenian consent. From Aliyev’s standpoint, a U.S. promise to back the corridor now, before Armenia has taken the final step of amending its constitution, could mean that this bit of leverage has been surrendered.”
“In short, the U.S. paid up front while Aliyev only had to reiterate peace assurances he has offered many times before,” added the former U.S. official.
Syunik is the only Armenian region bordering Iran. Not surprisingly, Tehran has criticized Yerevan for agreeing to let the U.S. administer a corridor that would be adjacent to the Armenian-Iranian border. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated his country’s concerns in a phone call with his Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday.
Russia’s public reaction to the transport agreement, seen by analysts as another blow to its presence in Armenia, has been cautious so far. Moscow has said only it must not be at odds with Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a Russian-led trade bloc, and the presence of Russian border guards along the Armenian-Iranian border.
O’Brien suggested that although the Washington summit sent a “strong message to Moscow” about greater U.S. involvement in the South Caucasus, the Russians will continue to regard the region and Armenia in particular as their “zone of influence.”